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OCTOBER 5,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

HUMBLE JOE – From Fox:  "Vice President Biden on Sunday issued his second apology of the weekend for remarks that offended allies that the U.S. needs in the fight to destroy the Islamic State.  Biden apologized by phone Sunday to Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, saying he never meant to imply that his country was supporting Al Qaeda fighters in Syria. Al Nahyan is also the deputy supreme commander of the United Arab Emirates’ armed forces.  Biden made the remarks at a speech Thursday, suggesting U.S. allies including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had funded and armed extremist groups linked to Al Qaeda. The UAE was exasperated and requested a formal clarification... On Saturday, Biden apologized to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for also saying during the speech that the Turkish leader admitted his country made mistakes by allowing foreign fighters to cross into Syria."  The outrage here is that an American vice president has to apologize to a bigoted Islamist like Tayyip Erdogan.  But Obama once said that Erdogan was his closest friend in the Mideast, which tells you who Obama really is.

CRAZY IN SEATTLE – Seattle is now competing with San Francisco for the title of craziest major city in America.  From the Daily Caller:  "The school board in Seattle unanimously resolved on Wednesday to direct public schools across the city to celebrate 'Indigenous Peoples’ Day' instead of Columbus Day on the second Monday of each October.  That Monday — Oct. 13 this year — has been the federal holiday of Columbus Day since 1970. Columbus Day has been a federal holiday in some form in the United States since 1937.  The resolution declares that the Seattle school board 'recognizes the fact that Seattle is built upon the homelands and villages of the Indigenous Peoples of this region, without whom the building of the City would not have been possible,' as local Fox affiliate KCPQ notes.  Further, according to board members, Seattle’s taxpayer-funded schools have 'a responsibility to oppose the systematic racism towards Indigenous people in the United States, which perpetuates high rates of poverty and income inequality, exacerbating disproportionate health, education and social crises.'"  One can honor both of course – indigenous peoples, previously called Native Americans, and the legacy of Christopher Columbus, a legacy of special importance to Italian Americans.  But only certain groups count in the People's Republic of Seattle.

GREAT STORY – from the New York Post:  "Legendary cellist Yo-Yo Ma’s daughter Emily Hornor Ma was recently married in the Berkshires, but asked her father not to play at her wedding because she wanted him to 'just be a dad that night.'  She married RBC investment banker John Mistovich at Trinity Episcopal Church in Lenox, Mass., in front of 300 guests.  Instead of Yo-Yo, the Alex Donner Orchestra performed at the reception at a private home, and they played the 'Blue Danube Waltz' for the newlyweds’ first dance, then the father and bride danced to 'My Girl.'"  That's a daughter who has class and common sense. 

October 5, 2014       Permalink

A MESS – AT 11:14 A.M. ET:   It will be hard enough for the GOP to pick up the six seats needed for Senate control next month.  But losing seats obviously makes that climb even tougher.  And we certainly never expected to lose Kansas.  I'm afraid we might.  From The Hill: 

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) is facing a double-digit deficit with one month left in his campaign, according to a new poll from NBC News.

Roberts trails independent businessman Greg Orman by 48 percent to 38 percent in the poll, conducted by Marist College for NBC.

Those numbers are the worst Roberts has had in reputable public polling, though he's trailed in most other recent public and private polling.

The race has turned into a major headache for national Republicans, whose aim is to win Senate control. Roberts has been plagued by residency issues and has run a lackluster campaign, and top national GOP staff have been dispatched to try to help him right the ship.

Orman has not said which party he'll caucus with if he wins.

COMMENT:  The Democratic candidate dropped out.  Orman is playing coy about his plans, if elected, but there are indications he leans Democratic.  That would be a catastrophe for our side.

I can't see how Roberts, who is so well known in his state – in other words there's not much growth potential – can make up ten points by election day.  We could wind up with a tied Senate, which means essentially a Democratic Senate, as the vice president breaks the tie.  Joe Biden will be told he's a Democrat, and will vote accordingly.  What a heartbreaker that would be.

October 5, 2014      Permalink

INCREDIBLE – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:  What is happening to the Western world?  From Gatestone Institute:   

The Dutch Ministry of Defense has advised its soldiers not wear their uniforms in public. Dutch vice Prime Minister Lodewijk Asscher of the Labour Party emphasized that the proposal was merely advice.

The Dutch military, however, clearly ordered -- instead of advised -- its personnel to hide their military professions in public.

Dutch customs officials, whose uniforms could be mistaken as military, received the same advice.

The reason for this display of woefully misplaced 'conscientiousness' was a series of threats by the Dutch jihadist known as Muhajiri Shaam, a member of the al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jahbat-al Nusra.

Shaam tweeted: "So, now Dutch F-16's. Dutch people: your government just made you a target".

In a more elaborate threat, Shaam stated: "The West offered more than 90 million lives during the first and second World War for their self-glorified democracy. So the Ummah must be prepared to sacrifice even more lives for a righteous State which rules under the laws of Allah. The world has suffered the oppressive darkness of Western capitalism for long enough. It's time they get a taste of divine justice."

Shaam's warnings followed in the wake of Dutch support for the military campaign against the new so-called "Islamic State" [IS].

The Dutch government last week pledged six F-16 fighter jets, two spare F-16's, and a maximum of 130 military advisors to train forces opposing IS.

These threats are being taken very seriously. The Dutch government fears attacks on its military personnel; more specific threats against Dutch soldiers have now been voiced by Dutch jihadists.

COMMENT:  The fact is that these threats will be heard throughout Europe, where enthusiasm for war in the Mideast is minimal.  We remember that a British soldier was beheaded on a street in London.  Europeans now have the same worry, and many will capitulate.

This is what terrorism is about.  It terrorizes. 

October 5, 2014       Permalink

THE NUTS HAVE BIG PLANS – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  The Islamic State does not think small.  From the Jerusalem Post: 

The British newspaper The Sunday Times reported on Sunday morning that Islamic State is calling on its members to brace for war with Iran in order to take over its nuclear secrets. The newspaper cited a document believed to have been written by top Islamic State member Abdullah Ahmed al-Meshedani, a member of the group's highly secretive six-man war cabinet.

According to the Times' report, the so-called manifesto was uncovered when Iraqi forces raided a home of a senior official of the jihadist group.

The document is allegedly being looked into by western security personnel, who have so far deemed it authentic, according to the newspaper.

The jihadist organization plans to pay off Russia, the document states, exchanging its control of Anbar province's vast gas fields for information on Iran's nuclear program.

The commander behind the manifesto also wants Russia to denounce its support for Iran and Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The Times story is not the first report of the Islamic State's desire to obtain non-conventional weapons

In August, Foreign Policy reported that Islamic State was also trying to develop biological weapons. The report cited information found on a laptop computer seized from an IS operative.

COMMENT:  They think strategically, and that is part of our worry.  The Islamic State is a serious enterprise.  If it is not nipped in the bud, it can become a major political force.  If it seizes more oil resources, it can become an economic force as well.

October 5,  2014     Permalink

OCTOBER 4,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:20 P.M. ET: 

STRANGE APOLOGY – From AP:  "ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — US Vice President Joe Biden apologized Saturday to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was angry over comments in which Biden said Erdogan had admitted that Turkey had made mistakes by allowing foreign fighters to cross into Syria."  So our vice president (probably acting on a prompt from our president) finds it necessary to apologize to Erdogan, a two-bit West-hating Islamist, who has become increasingly repressive.  One person who won't be receiving an apology from Biden is former CIA Director and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, whose new book severely criticizes Barack Obama's style of non-leadership.  Biden called the book "inappropriate."  No, it's very appropriate, as America is now warned by an insider about the reality of an administration that still has two years to run. 

THE REAL WORLD – From Fox:  "The Islamic State terror group identified its next target on Friday, a former U.S. Army Ranger who was captured in Lebanon last year during a relief mission to help Syrian refugees.  Peter Edward Kassig, 26, first visited Beirut on a college spring break trip. What the Indiana native saw there prompted him to return, the next time as a medical assistant and humanitarian worker hoping to offer blankets, food and medical care to victims of the region's conflicts.  Kassig founded a nongovernmental organization that provided aid for refugees fleeing the civil war in neighboring Syria. But his work in Lebanon led to his capture by militants on Oct. 1, 2013, while en route to eastern Syria."   It was the beheading of one American that led to public outrage here over the Islamic State.  One wonders what a new beheading will bring.  And what if the same fate falls on a downed American airman?

HILLARY'S ITINERARY – From The Politico:  "Hillary Clinton has mapped out much of her political schedule through Election Day, an itinerary that focuses on helping Senate candidates and includes trips to a half-dozen states, including Kentucky and presidential early states Iowa and New Hampshire, according to details obtained by POLITICO.  The plan, which could see adjustments and additions as races hit critical points in the coming weeks, was the product of close work between Clinton chief of staff Huma Abedin and the Democratic campaign committees."  Sounds like just the right itinerary for someone looking to pick up loyalty points for a presidential run.  She's not doing this out of love for fellow Democrats.  I wonder if she's bringing the new baby with her.

October 4, 2014       Permalink

GALLUP ASSESSES THE RACE – AT 11:57 A.M. ET:  And sees similarities to 2010 and 2006.  From Gallup: 

PRINCETON, NJ -- Registered voters are more likely to view their choice of candidate in this year's midterm elections as a message of opposition (32%) rather than support (20%) for President Barack Obama. That 12-percentage-point margin is similar to what Gallup measured for Obama in 2010 and George W. Bush in 2006, years in which their parties performed poorly in the midterm elections.

Gallup first asked this question in 1998, the year Republicans were moving toward impeaching President Bill Clinton for lying about his affair with a White House intern. That year, when Clinton's approval rating was 63%, more voters said their choice of candidate in the fall election would be made to show support rather than opposition to Clinton. Democrats had a strong showing in that fall's elections, gaining seats in the House of Representatives, bucking the historical pattern by which the president's party loses seats in Congress in midterm elections.

In the next midterm election, voters by an even larger margin said their vote would be made to support rather than oppose President George W. Bush, who had a 66% approval rating at the time of the elections. These attitudes were consistent with the eventual outcome, as Republicans increased their majority in the House and gained majority control of the Senate.

The presidents in the next two midterm elections were not popular, including Bush's second midterm election in 2006 (38%) when Democrats won control of the House and Senate and Obama's first midterm in 2010 (44%) when Republicans won back control of both houses of Congress. Reinforcing that the 2014 midterms look more like 2006 and 2010 than 1998 or 2002, Obama's approval ratings have been in the low 40% range, including 42% in the most recent Gallup Daily tracking three-day rolling average.

COMMENT:  Yes, true.  At the same time we must caution that, as Tip O'Neill famously said, "all politics is local."  Senators run in their states, not in the nation.  Our side is having trouble in some states we should be winning easily because the local incumbent retains residual support.  Overcoming that local advantage is one of the keys to victory.  Simply bashing Obama won't be enough.

October 4, 2014       Permalink

MITT RISING? – AT 11:16 A.M. ET:  Gee, Mitt Romney seems to be everywhere these days.  And he's saying the right things.  You don't think he's planning to....  Nah.  Well, maybe nah.  From CBS: 

IVONIA, Mich. — A victory by Terri Lynn Land in Michigan’s Senate race in November is important to winning back Republican control of the chamber, former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney told supporters during a GOP rally Thursday in his native state.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who lost the 2012 presidential race to Barack Obama, said it has been a tough time for the country since that election.

“It’s time for him to apologize to America,” Romney said of Obama, speaking to several hundred GOP supporters.

But, Romney said, “Help is on the way” in the person of Land, who “will make a difference in Washington.”

He then introduced Land, the former secretary of state who is pitted in a tight race with Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters to replace longtime Democratic Sen. Carl Levin.

COMMENT:  Hmm. That's a good line – demanding that Obama apologize to America.  I suspect we're seeing the foundation being laid for a new presidential campaign by Mitt, emphasizing the fact that he was right on so many things, and Obama, as usual, was wrong.  Mitt can run on the values of wisdom, experience, competence, and record.  It will be tough.  He isn't charismatic, and Hillary will suck the journalistic oxygen out of the room.  She's be anointed as the "obvious" next president.  But maybe the American people will wake up and surprise the pundits.

October 4, 2014       Permalink

GOP VICTORY CLOSER? – AT 10:55 A.M. ET:  From The Hill:

With one month until Election Day, Republicans' chances for retaking the Senate and picking up seats in the House are improving.

The GOP has been buoyed by positive public polling, while red-state Democrats are still struggling to find distance from President Obama. There are bright spots and even some unexpected new targets on the map for both parties, but the overall national environment seems to have ticked a bit toward Republicans.

The GOP needs to win a net of six seats to retake control of the Senate, and Republicans seem better-positioned to do so now than they did through much of the summer.

Democrats must hold their own for a decent election night, and they’re putting their faith in their vaunted ground game for the final stretch.

Both sides say control of the upper chamber is still very much at play, and Republicans certainly aren’t taking a victory lap just yet.

“The Senate is up for grabs and the outcome is far from certain,” said Paul Lindsay, spokesman for the pro-GOP American Crossroads. “There's a lot of encouraging signs in many states and a good progression for us in many states. But at the same time many of these races are still up for grabs.”

The GOP is all but certain to win open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Their candidates have also pulled into dead heats or slight leads against red-state Sens. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), leaving the party feeling bullish that former Alaska Department of Natural Resources commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) and Reps. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) will be joining the upper chamber next year.

COMMENT:  I'm mildly encouraged, which for me is near-euphoria.  A month is three lifetimes in politics.  The Dems have their usual dirty tricks, including an odd mathematical phenomenon wherein more people vote in a district on election day than live in the district.  They also have their scare campaigns.  Nothing is certain yet.  Control of the Senate may actually not be known election night, or even the next morning, if Louisiana goes into a runoff.  Fight as if we're 20 points behind.

October 4,  2014     Permalink